The setup: QQQ rises more than 2% on a trading day in the Monday–Friday calendar week immediately after a rate-hiking FOMC meeting. Yesterday’s WSJ-based study found 17 completed signals; September 21, 2026 remains pending.
One week later: median return −1.01%.
Two weeks later: +1.73%.
About one month later: +1.00%.
Lowest point over the next five sessions: median −4.60% relative to the signal close.
The immediate follow-through was often difficult, even though the later medians were positive. These signals came from 14 meetings, and some windows overlap.
One 1999 qualifying date is disputed between WSJ and Yahoo. Excluding it, the one-week median is −0.74%. The chart flags other older price disagreements too. The “lowest point” measure uses intraday lows; it is not the closing return or a peak-to-trough drawdown.
Also, look at the seasonality
This second chart covers midterm-election years, the second year of each presidential term. It matches weekday occurrences across 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. Today’s marker is September 22.
The final calendar week this year runs September 28–30. Its Monday matches the fourth Monday of September:
SPX: average −0.54%, median −0.68%; down in five of six years.
QQQ: average −0.51%, median −0.48%; down in four of six years.
Conclusion
Both charts suggest room for near-term consolidation: softer first-week returns after similar QQQ rallies, and historical weakness at the start of September’s final week.
A strong month-end remains possible, but the final two seasonality bars each reflect just one observation. That is too little evidence to call for a late-month surge.
Sources and definitions: WSJ QQQ, WSJ SPX, and Federal Reserve rate decisions. Price returns exclude dividends. Forward horizons are 5, 10 and 21 trading sessions. The Fed study uses data through September 21, 2026; the seasonality sample excludes 2026.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, scenarios, price targets, or market observations reflect my personal views and may change without notice. Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, position sizing, risk management, and trades. Conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional where appropriate.