No FOMO
The market has moved sharply, but if a new uptrend is beginning, the larger opportunity may still lie ahead.
Where we have been?
Yesterday, I pointed out the striking similarity between the current QQQ drawdown and the correction we saw earlier in the cycle.
After breaking out in June 2025, QQQ advanced approximately 17% before peaking in November. That move was followed by a drawdown of roughly 13%.
The current sequence has been remarkably similar, although it has unfolded on a much more compressed timeline. QQQ advanced approximately 17% following its April 2026 breakout and subsequently declined nearly 12%.
The percentages are almost identical, and markets rarely repeat themselves perfectly. But the structure is similar enough to be useful.
What comes next?
Today’s rebound will create FOMO among investors who were not positioned. But one strong day does not mean the opportunity has passed.
If the recent low holds and QQQ begins another sustained advance, a 30%–35% move from that low would place it in the 875–900 range.
That is not a prediction. It is a scenario.
For the thesis to strengthen, I want to see:
The recent low continue to hold.
QQQ reclaim a
nd sustain key resistance levels.
Market breadth improve.
Leading stocks break out—and hold those breakouts.
There is no need to chase one strong session. If a durable uptrend is beginning, there will be time to build exposure as the market confirms itself.
The goal is not to catch the exact bottom. It is to participate in the larger move while keeping risk defined.
Right now, the market is offering early evidence that the correction may be ending. If that evidence strengthens, the larger opportunity may still lie ahead.
Good luck, and keep learning.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, scenarios, price targets, or market observations reflect my personal views and may change without notice. Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, position sizing, risk management, and trades. Conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional where appropriate.