October has started strongly. Through the October 6 close, SPX is up 2.19% and QQQ is up 2.69%. Both are ahead of the seasonal mean and above the middle 50% of historical paths from our earlier study.
SPX
1.53 percentage points ahead of the same-date historical mean.
QQQ
2.49 percentage points ahead of the same-date historical mean.
The historical early-October weakness has not appeared so far. Buyers have built a cushion; the next test is whether they hold it through a pullback.
One caution: Higher yields and persistent inflation could still pressure stocks. The September FOMC minutes, due October 7 at 2 p.m. Eastern, could move markets if they change expectations for rates.
Six midterm years: 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. The shaded band is historical context, not a forecast interval. Price returns from September’s closing level, compared by calendar date; dividends excluded. Historical data: archived WSJ/FactSet. October 6 closes: SPX and QQQ.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, scenarios, price targets, or market observations reflect my personal views and may change without notice. Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, position sizing, risk management, and trades. Conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional where appropriate.