Q4 means October, November and December. This study includes only setups that occurred in those months: the Nasdaq-100 at a closing record while the Russell 2000 bounced near its 200-day moving average. Returns are measured over the following 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, including into the next year.
One year after this Q4 setup, the Nasdaq-100 gained 18.9% on average, the S&P 500 gained 9.1%, and the Russell 2000 gained 9.7%. All three finished higher in 80% of cases.
The study found five completed signals: December 16, 1991; November 6, 1996; October 8, 1999; October 25, 2019; and October 28, 2021.
After one month, the Nasdaq-100 gained 7.7% on average and the S&P 500 gained 3.8%; both were up in 100% of cases. The Russell 2000 gained 4.8% on average and was up in 80% of cases.
Returns and how often they were positive
Every historical signal
All five completed Q4 signals and their forward returns are shown below. October 5, 2026 also qualifies; its forward returns are pending.
Above or below the average
At twelve months, each index beat its own sample average in 60% of cases and fell below it in 40%. The table shows the split at every horizon.
Method and sources
Q4 Nasdaq-100 closing record; Russell 2000 within 0–3% above its 200-day SMA, after a recent test, and higher than five sessions earlier. “Recent test” means the lowest closing distance in the prior ten sessions was −3% to +1%. Q4 filtering precedes 63-session signal spacing. Search: June 1988–October 2026.
Horizons: 21/63/126/252 sessions. Price returns exclude dividends. “Up” means above zero; above/below average uses each index’s same-horizon mean. Pending returns are excluded. Source: Yahoo Finance NDX, SPX and RUT; Inder’s Desk calculations.
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Five historical observations. Historical results are not forecasts. Research, not personalized investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, scenarios, price targets, or market observations reflect my personal views and may change without notice. Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, position sizing, risk management, and trades. Conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional where appropriate.
