Four of six completed SOXX cycles regained their previous peak within 126 trading sessions of the eventual low. The median recovery took 112.5 sessions. The fastest took 53; the longest took 1,339.
At the October 22 close, SOXX was 27.38% below its June record. From the $475.69 baseline, a 37.70% gain would regain the $655.01 peak.
For this comparison, October 23, 2026 is assumed recovery day one. Rounding the historical median up to 113 sessions puts the calendar reference at 04/07/2027, accounting for exchange holidays. Session 112 falls on 04/06/2027. Early-close days count as sessions.
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Method: six non-overlapping declines of at least 20% from record closing highs in available SOXX daily history since July 13, 2001. Historical paths begin at the eventual low; the 2001–2014 cycle includes dot-com and financial-crisis declines. The current start is assumed; the actual cycle low remains July 29. Split-adjusted price returns exclude dividends. This is a historical comparison, not a forecast of a recovery date or investment advice.
Sources: Yahoo Finance price history; iShares fund information; exchange calendar.
