Welcome back.
Today, I want to talk about the sharp rebound in the Nasdaq—and why, even after a strong day, there may be no reason to feel FOMO.
Yesterday, I pointed out an interesting similarity in the QQQ chart.
After breaking out in June 2025, QQQ advanced about 17% before peaking in November. It then experienced a drawdown of roughly 13%.
The current sequence looks remarkably similar, although it has played out much faster.
Following its April 2026 breakout, QQQ also gained about 17%, before declining nearly 12%.
Markets never repeat themselves perfectly. But when the structure and percentages line up this closely, the comparison becomes useful.
Now, after today’s sharp rebound, investors who were not positioned may feel that they have already missed the move.
I do not think that is necessarily the right conclusion.
If the recent low holds and this develops into another sustained advance, the market may still be near the beginning of the move—not the end.
Using the previous advance as a rough analogue, a 30% to 35% move from the recent low would place QQQ somewhere in the 875 to 900 range.
But let me be very clear:
That is not a prediction. It is a scenario.
The market still needs to confirm it.
I would want to see four things.
First, the recent low must continue to hold.
Second, QQQ needs to reclaim and sustain the important resistance levels above it.
Third, market breadth needs to improve. A healthy advance should involve more than just a handful of mega-cap technology stocks.
And fourth, leading stocks need to break out—and then hold those breakouts.
The important point is that there is no need to chase a single strong session.
If a durable uptrend is beginning, there should be time to build exposure gradually as the market confirms itself.
The goal is not to catch the exact bottom.
The goal is to participate in the larger move while keeping risk clearly defined.
Right now, the market is offering early evidence that the correction may be ending.
If that evidence strengthens, the larger opportunity may still lie ahead.
So: no FOMO, no blind prediction, and no need to chase.
Watch the evidence. Define the risk. Build exposure deliberately.
Good luck, and keep learning.
Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. All opinions, market scenarios, and price targets reflect personal views and may change without notice. Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own research, risk management, and investment decisions.
